Why US Election May Be Over Before Nov. 8

As the US election draw nearer indications have shown that the election may be over before the date set out for the poll as the fate of the two candidates is quietly getting decided well in advance.
 

One major factor that determined who emerges in any US presidential election is the National poll and can be rely upon based on the previous election.

In 2004, when Democrat John Kerry contested against George W. Bush who was leading with just 1.6 percent at the national poll, at the end republican candidate, Bush won the election with over 3million votes.

Also in 2008, race between Sen. John McCain and Obama who was up by 5.5 percentage points 28 days before the election. Obama went on to win by nearly 10 million votes and outpolled McCain’s electoral vote count by more than 2 to 1, and the presidential election of 2012 where Barack Obama led Mitt Romney by just 0.7 and went on to win the election with over 5million votes.

This year’s national poll is more like the 2008 presidential race because in less than 28 days left for the Americans to decide on who rest power from Obama, Hillary Clinton is leading her rival Donald Trump with 6.5 percent in the national poll.

Another reason to be considered is Early voting, “no-excuse” absentee voting, and mail voting.

This is matter because in 2012, analysts estimate that somewhere between 31 and 35 per cent of the total votes were cast before Election Day. 

In 2016, with the number of States allowing advance voting by mail or in person with few restrictions up to 37 — and the District of Columbia — from 34 in 2012, preliminary data by news agencies suggests that advance voting numbers could reach 40 per cent of total national votes. 

On the one hand the rise of early voting could help the Democratic campaign capture the benefits of multi-year voter registration programmes, although Republicans, learning from the drubbing handed to them in 2012, have begun to catch up fast. 

Analysts have already started reporting that the early wave of data from States such as Florida and North Carolina “shows preliminary signs that Mrs. Clinton was building a slight edge even before the revelation that Donald J. Trump had bragged about sexual assault roiled the race.” 

The release of taped marks the sharp indictment delivered by president Obama of Republicans who continue to support Trump's bid despite hearing him on a recently released video talking in vulgar terms about making unwanted sexual advances toward women also contributed more damage to his presidential race.